10 things I expect to happen in Afghanistan over the next decade 

Ayo Akinfe 

[1] To court acceptance, the Taliban will be a little liberal during their first year 

[2] After they have consolidated their grip on power, then the beheadings, amputations, public floggings, etc will resume 

[3] Already, the fightback has begun as Vice President Amrullah Saleh and Ahmad Massoud, the son of his former mentor and famed anti-Taliban fighter Ahmed Shah Massoud, have started gathering resistance fighters in the Panjshir Valley northeast of Kabul

[4] Make no doubt about it, this will be a fight to the finish as Mr Saleh has said: “I won't disappoint millions who listened to me. I will never be under one ceiling with the Taliban. NEVER.”

[5] Given that Mr Saleh said he is the legitimate caretaker president after President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, I expect some nations to recognise him as the legitimate Afghan head of state 

[6] Mr Saleh and Mr Massoud who commands a militia force, appear to be putting together the first pieces of a guerilla movement to take on the victorious Taliban, as fighters regroup in Panjshir. Famed for its natural defences, the valley never fell to the Taliban during the civil war of the 1990s, nor was it ever conquered by the Soviets a decade earlier

[7] Orphaned at a young age, Mr Saleh first fought alongside guerilla commander Massoud in the 1990s. He went on to serve in his government before being chased out of Kabul when the Taliban captured it in 1996. He is not one to give up. I can see him fighting for the next 10 years if need be 

[8] All Mr Saleh needs now is for the Taliban to become unpopular once they start their ruthless campaign 

[9] All those thinking the fighting is all over are in for a surprise. Mr Saleh is only 48 and fully capable of leading a guerrilla movement 

[10] The only way for the Taliban to avoid another war is for them to call elections but they do not believe in that, so we are in for another lengthy bloodbath