Is there anything stopping civil society groups from coming together and drawing up a developmental blueprint which we can then mandate all presidential candidates to sign in the run-up to 2023?

Ayo Akinfe

[1] Now that the presidential primaries are over, I think it is time to discuss this matter of economic growth. Nigeria is forecast to have a mere 2% gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate over the coming years, which is wholly inadequate

[2] Between 1999 and 2015, our average economic growth rate was about 6% per annum, although it was mainly due to high oil prices. However, in 2015, the economy just crashed into recession amid fears that President Buhari would prevent foreign investors from repatriating their wealth and profits

[3] Following the drop in oil prices by about 40%, President Buhari panicked and sought to introduce protectionist and austerity measures. This led to financial portfolios withdrawing something like $30bn from the Nigerian economy, pushing her into recession. Given that most of the foreign direct investment (FDI) in Nigeria was finance capital, it was easy to pull out, as it did not involve having to deal with physical assets

[4] Once that process starts, you have a chain reaction or domino effect. Eventually, we saw JP Morgan say it would eject Africa's biggest economy from its influential emerging markets bond index due to tough controls imposed to prevent a currency collapse. Any student of history will know that when this happened in South Africa, apartheid simply collapsed

[5] Fortunately for Nigeria, we still have crude oil so can avoid a South African style meltdown. We are also the world’s sixth largest agricultural producer, so within two years, our economy was able to recover from recession and we had something like 2% annual GDP growth

[6] However, then, the coronavirus pandemic struck and alas, then we were in big trouble again. FDI dried up and we now have to find a way to attract investment if we want to create jobs and grow our economy

[7] With the whole world looking to Asia and Africa to provide the new economic stimulus for humanity, Nigeria is always going to be centre stage. Asian leaders are always going to have to court Nigeria's president as apart from the fact that we have Africa’s largest economy. They all want access to our 200m strong economy

[8] This is where out new president needs to lay down a marker. He needs to have a clear policy that Nigerian economic growth will never lag behind that of Asia’s economies. At the worst, he should ensure that he matches the Asian average

[9] According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s population grows by about 2.6% annually, meaning that we basically need 3% GDP growth just to stay even. No matter how you look at it, Nigeria needs double digit GDP growth between 2023 and 2027. Anything less and we will just be marking time

[10] My people want infrastructure and social amenities but I wonder how they will get that when our budget is a pitiable $30bn. No matter how you look at it, $30bn for 200m people is an austerity budget. Until we reach the budget to population ratio of $1bn for every 1m people, we will remain a poverty stricken and beggarly nation. There is no short cut to this. We simply need to grow our economy. Four years of back-to-back double digit economic growth between 2023 and 2027 and a $200bn budget in four years time should take us to The Promised Land!

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