No matter how you cut it there is no way out of Nigeria’s current economic quagmire other than religious finance

Ayo Akinfe

(1) I have studied the recent report just published by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics and from everything I can see, the economy looks set to shrink by between 9% and 10% during the course of 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic

(2) Anyone thinking the government can bail the country out is simply not familiar with the workings of global economics. Our 2020 budget was predicated on Nigeria selling 2.1m barrels of oil a day at a price of $57 a barrel. Brent crude or our Bonny Light Crude is currently selling for about $44 a barrel and we will be lucky if we sell 1.5m barrels a day

(3) Since the coronavirus pandemic struck, Nigeria has already incurred debts of about $10bn from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and African Development Bank to fund the 2020 budget

(4) For 2021, President Muhammadu Buhari has already presented an ambitious budget of $33.68bn to the National Assembly. I am scratching my head asking how the government is going to fund it and can find no answers

(5) With record job losses, negative growth, no investment and exports having all but ceased, I ask again - How is the Nigerian government going to raise revenue? Where is the job creation, extra tax and infrastructure funding going to come from?

(6) Nigeria could get out of this morass if we attracted say something like $30bn in foreign direct investment (FDI) that would create jobs, expand production, manufacture goods for export and produce local products to save foreign exchange but alas, that is simply not happening. There is no serious foreign investment in the Nigerian economy at the moment

(7) Maybe if we could merge Dangote Industries and Innoson Motors into one massive conglomerate and mandate it to manufacture every household and consumer item we use locally, that could offer a way out. It would at least create jobs and save scarce foreign exchange used to fund imports

(8) However, that is not going to happen as Dangote has got all his capital tied up in his Lekki refinery. I look at other millionaires with cash to burn like Dino Melaye, Orji Uzor Kalu, Folorunsho Alakija, Mike Adenuga, Femi Otedola, etc and not one of them is even considering investing in manufacturing. Maybe they are also feeling the pinch of the current climate

(9) For me, the only solution is to get our faith houses to merge their financial arms and float a massive conglomerate that can rival other “national companies” like say Siemens (Germany), Mitsubishi (Japan), Fiat (Italy), Daewoo (South Korea), San Miguel (Philippines), Citroen (France), etc. Do you know that in the US, Salt Lake City's Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints directed that all of its members be refunded the tithes they have paid over the last three years to enable them cope with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic? In Nigeria, such money is better spent on investment

(10) With no foreign exchange to purchase imports, Nigeria has no choice but to join the manufacturers’ club or the country will simply collapse beneath us. Other than diaspora remittances, I do not see capital flowing into Nigeria from any other source. However, diaspora cash is not invested. I agree with Aliko Dangote when he said economies thrive on local investment rather than FDI. As things stand in Nigeria today, I do not see any other local investors on the horizon other than our millionaire pastorprueners. I am perplexed that President Buhari has not invited them to Aso Rock to draw up an action plan

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