Dogara delays leaving the APC as he weighs up his options ahead of next year's elections

HOUSE of Representatives speaker Hon Yakubu Dogara has delayed his planned defection from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) after his advisers told him to tarry a while before taking the political gamble.

Over the last two weeks, there have been a series of defections in the National Assembly with about 15 senators and 37 members of the House of Representatives leaving the APC to join the main opposition the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). There have also been several high profile defectors moving the other way, chief among them the senate minority leader Senator Godswill Akpabio, who has joined the APC.

Amidst all the turmoil, senate president Senator Bukola Saraki declared that he has lefty the APC and joined the PDP and Hon Dogara was expected to follow suit but so far he has not. Apparently, there is a major concern in Hon Dogara’s camp about what could be the likely result of the 2019 polls and which political party would assume majority control in the House of Representatives.

One of his associates said that Hon Dogara would live to return next year to continue as the speaker and to achieve his goal, the party with the majority would matter a lot to him. At the moment, the APC still controls the majority in the House of Representatives today with about 186 members as against PDP’s 162.

“In 2019, no one is sure how things will pan out. Dogara has less problems to contend with as a speaker today because he is still with the APC.

“No one is seriously demanding his resignation, neither is he facing any impeachment threat like the senate president. The fear now is that if he hurriedly defects to the PDP to contest the election, his chances of returning as a speaker if the APC retains the majority become a tough call," the source said.

It is not yet clear whether the APC plans to force Hon Dogara to leave the party as so far he has not been put under pressure to resign his position as has happened with Senator Saraki. APC chairman Adams Oshiomhole, has repeatedly called on the senate president to stand down as he is no longer a member of the ruling party which commands a majority in the senate.

Hon Dogara's associate added: “On the other hand, if he remains in the APC to contest the election and the PDP captures the majority, it will be another problem for Dogara because the PDP, now hungry for power, will pick one of their own. A third option, which appears more appealing, is for him to stick with the APC, hoping it will retain the majority and then see if he can then work across parties to get enough votes to remain the speaker.”

Another parliamentary aide pointed out that there was also uncertainty over the speaker’s return ticket in the APC, which the Bauchi State governor Mohammed Abubakar, had since allotted to his own candidate. Hon Dogara is said to be very popular in his Tafawa-Balewa/Dass/Bogoro Federal Constituency and would easily win an election on any platform.